The Saudi Nuclear Question: Peaceful Atom or Power Play

Riyadh – Saudi Arabia has long positioned itself as a force for stability in the Middle East. But as Iran inches closer to nuclear threshold capability, the Kingdom’s quiet nuclear ambitions are beginning to make global powers uneasy.

At the center of this debate is a critical question: Is Saudi Arabia pursuing nuclear energy for peaceful development — or is it preparing for a new phase in the region’s power struggle?

Atoms for Energy or Insurance Against Iran?

Officially, Saudi Arabia insists its nuclear efforts are purely civilian — aimed at diversifying energy, desalination, and reducing oil dependency. Yet beneath the surface, there is a clear strategic motivation: counterbalance Iran.

“If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, we will follow suit immediately,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told CBS in 2018 — a line many believe remains valid today.

The Saudi civilian nuclear program includes:

A deal with China to build research reactors.
Talks with the U.S. for access to enrichment technology.
Secret negotiations for uranium mining rights in the Kingdom.

Why the World Is Wary

The Kingdom is not a signatory to the IAEA’s Additional Protocol, which allows for more intrusive inspections. While Saudi Arabia is technically within its rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), analysts say the lack of transparency raises eyebrows.

“You don’t build a parallel enrichment program in a rush unless you’re preparing for a strategic hedge,” says Dr. Joseph Cirincione, a global nuclear policy expert.

The concern: If Iran becomes a nuclear state, Saudi Arabia — backed by vast wealth and rapid infrastructure — could develop its own deterrent in a matter of months, not years.

U.S. and Israel: A Delicate Balancing Act

The United States faces a diplomatic dilemma: it wants to support Saudi Arabia against Iran, but fears the spread of enrichment technology could spark a Middle East arms race. Israel, which quietly holds a nuclear monopoly in the region, is reportedly deeply opposed to Saudi enrichment.

Saudi Arabia, in turn, has leveraged its normalization talks with Israel under the Abraham Accords as a bargaining chip — offering peace in exchange for nuclear concessions.

A Nuclear Domino Effect?

Saudi Arabia’s nuclear pursuit could trigger:

Turkey to revisit its own program.
Egypt to accelerate its civilian reactor development.
UAE, despite having a peaceful nuclear program, to reconsider its "no-enrichment" policy.

A nuclear Iran followed by a nuclear Saudi Arabia could mark the end of the NPT’s authority in the Middle East.

A Ticking Clock

Whether Saudi Arabia’s intentions remain peaceful or turn strategic may depend less on Riyadh — and more on Tehran. As Iran continues enriching uranium and defying Western pressure, Riyadh’s patience with diplomacy may wear thin.

The global community now watches closely, asking: Is the desert kingdom preparing for energy independence — or nuclear parity?