Iran’s Proxies and the Nuclear Question: Risk of Dirty Bombs

Tehran / Beirut / Washington D.C. – As Iran’s nuclear program advances, Western intelligence agencies and Middle East analysts are raising alarms over an increasingly chilling scenario: the potential transfer of radioactive materials—or even nuclear know-how—to Iran-backed proxy groups. Among the worst-case fears? The construction and deployment of a “dirty bomb” in a major urban center.

What Is a Dirty Bomb?

Unlike a true nuclear bomb, a “dirty bomb” or radiological dispersal device (RDD) is a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material. It is not meant to cause a nuclear explosion, but to contaminate the area, instill mass panic, and disrupt civilian life, economy, and emergency infrastructure.

Such devices are simpler to construct and could be made using:

Medical isotopes (e.g., cobalt-60, cesium-137)
Industrial radioactive waste
Even small-scale material diverted from poorly secured facilities

Iran’s Proxy Network: The Transmission Risk

Iran maintains strong operational and financial ties with several armed non-state actors:

Hezbollah (Lebanon)
Hamas (Gaza)
Islamic Jihad (Palestinian territories)
Houthis (Yemen)

These groups have already demonstrated:

Use of advanced rocketry and drones
Expertise in smuggling weapons and explosives
A willingness to target civilian areas

If Iran crosses the nuclear threshold or expands its enrichment capacity, analysts fear it could share radioactive material, directly or indirectly, with these proxies—either for battlefield use or terror plots.

“We’re not talking about missiles with warheads—we’re talking about a van parked in a city center,” said a former CIA counterterrorism officer.

High-Value Targets at Risk

Cities likely to be targeted in a dirty bomb scenario:

Tel Aviv, Israel – due to its proximity and high-profile status
Riyadh or Abu Dhabi – as symbols of Gulf leadership
Western capitals like London, Paris, or New York, in retaliation for sanctions or strikes

The psychological impact of a dirty bomb would far exceed the physical destruction, possibly:

Triggering massive evacuations
Collapsing local economies
Straining healthcare and emergency response systems

Current Security Gaps

Despite global tracking of nuclear materials, there are serious vulnerabilities:

Medical and industrial sites with inadequate protection
Conflict zones where radiological sources are poorly monitored
Black markets that deal in radioactive material

The IAEA and national governments have long warned about this, but in regions like Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, governance is too weak to guarantee material control.

Western Response: Prevention and Deterrence

The U.S., Israel, and European allies are:

Increasing intelligence coordination on radiological threats
Bolstering port and border scanning
Working with the IAEA to secure orphan sources in conflict zones

Israel’s preemptive doctrine includes targeting facilities suspected of transferring strategic materials, even if they’re not explicitly nuclear.

What Happens If It Happens?

A dirty bomb attack—especially one linked back to Iran—would likely:

Trigger massive retaliatory strikes against both the proxies and Iran itself
Collapse remaining nuclear diplomacy
Justify military escalation by the U.S. or Israel on the global stage

“The use of even a radiological weapon by a proxy will be treated as a nuclear provocation,” warned an Israeli defense official.

A Shadow War with Radioactive Stakes

While Iran has never been caught transferring radioactive material to its proxies, the risk grows as its nuclear program expands unchecked. In a region already teetering on strategic instability, a dirty bomb could be the tipping point—not just for war, but for a redefinition of nuclear terrorism.

As the world focuses on missiles and warheads, it may be a crude homemade device in a truck that changes the future of nuclear deterrence.