Nuclear Dominoes: If Iran Goes Nuclear, Who’s Next

Tehran / Riyadh / Ankara / Cairo – As talks over Iran’s nuclear program stall yet again and uranium enrichment reaches near-weapons-grade levels, international observers are sounding the alarm over a potentially unstoppable chain reaction: if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, which countries will follow?

This “nuclear domino theory” is no longer just academic—it’s a real concern shaping policy in capitals from Riyadh to Ankara.

The Threshold Moment

For decades, Iran has maintained that its nuclear ambitions are strictly peaceful. However, its enrichment of uranium up to 60% purity—just short of weapons-grade—has brought it to the brink of becoming a “threshold nuclear state.”

If Tehran crosses the line and tests or deploys a weapon, it would:

Break its commitments under the NPT
Collapse what’s left of the JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal)
Set a precedent that nuclear defiance pays off.

And perhaps most importantly, it would send a powerful message to its neighbors: nuclear weapons work.

Saudi Arabia: First in Line

Saudi Arabia has publicly warned that it will match Iran “immediately” if Tehran acquires a nuclear weapon. The Kingdom is:

Building nuclear research reactors
Pursuing uranium mining
Pressuring the U.S. for enrichment rights as part of regional diplomacy

“We cannot live under a nuclear-armed Iran without ensuring our own security,” a Saudi security advisor told Al Arabiya in 2024.

Saudi Arabia has both the financial resources and international partnerships to rapidly pursue a bomb if needed, especially if it feels the U.S. security umbrella is no longer reliable.

Turkey: National Pride and Regional Ambition

Turkey is officially a supporter of nuclear non-proliferation—but President Erdoğan has publicly questioned why some countries can have nuclear weapons while others cannot.

Turkey possesses:

Advanced missile and space technology
Civilian nuclear infrastructure (with Russia's help)
A history of strategic autonomy

If Iran and Saudi Arabia both move toward nuclearization, Turkey may join to preserve regional parity, especially amid tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and NATO uncertainty.

Egypt: The Silent Watcher

Egypt is a longtime regional power that once pursued nuclear weapons in the 1960s. While it has focused on domestic challenges in recent years, its military capacity and nuclear research history put it in a strong position to restart a latent program.

If multiple Middle Eastern states go nuclear, Egypt may revive its deterrence capabilities to maintain relevance in the Arab world.

Who Else Could Be Tempted?

UAE: Has a peaceful nuclear program but may rethink its “no-enrichment” pledge.
Jordan and Qatar: Less likely, but could pursue civilian nuclear tech as a first step.
Israel: May respond with overwhelming force to any nuclear threat and preempt regional arms races.

Global Implications: NPT at Breaking Point

A nuclear Iran triggering a domino effect in the Middle East would be the greatest challenge the NPT has faced since its creation. It would:

Encourage proliferation in other volatile regions (e.g., East Asia, North Africa)
Erode the credibility of international agreements
Undermine decades of Western-led arms control diplomacy

“The moment Iran tests a bomb, the world enters a new phase of instability,” said Dr. Lisa Becker, director of the Stockholm Peace Research Institute.

One Bomb Could Detonate the Whole System

If Iran becomes a nuclear-armed state, it won’t be the end of the story—it will be the beginning of a new chapter in nuclear history. One where regional rivalry, distrust, and strategic insecurity drive multiple nations to seek the ultimate deterrent. And once the first domino falls, stopping the chain may be impossible.