The NPT in Crisis: Are Nuclear Treaties Still Relevant

New York / Geneva – For nearly 60 years, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has served as the cornerstone of global efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons. It established a fragile but enduring framework where nuclear states committed to disarmament, while non-nuclear states agreed to forgo weapons in exchange for peaceful nuclear technology. However, as geopolitical tensions rise and nuclear-armed nations defy their obligations, the question must be asked: Is the NPT still a relevant and effective tool in the 21st century?

???? The NPT’s Fractured Foundation

The NPT has successfully prevented the spread of nuclear weapons to many countries, but its effectiveness is increasingly in doubt. Nations like India, Israel, and Pakistan have developed nuclear weapons outside the treaty framework, while others like North Korea have withdrawn and built their own arsenals.

Critics argue that the treaty’s primary flaw is its lack of enforcement:

India has never signed the NPT but maintains a large nuclear arsenal, enjoying strategic ties with the United States.
Israel maintains a policy of "nuclear ambiguity," neither confirming nor denying its nuclear weapons while remaining an unacknowledged nuclear power.
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are seen as a deterrent against India, yet its nuclear program has always been at odds with the NPT’s non-proliferation goals.

“The treaty has increasingly become a tool for the nuclear powers to maintain their dominance, while others are left with the choice to either comply or go nuclear,” says Dr. Naomi Klein, a nuclear policy expert.

???? A Divided World: Non-Nuclear States Feel Left Behind

For non-nuclear countries, the treaty’s promise of disarmament seems hollow. Over the years, nuclear powers have made little progress toward nuclear disarmament, despite their obligations under the treaty’s Article VI.

Countries like Brazil and South Africa—who voluntarily dismantled their nuclear programs—are frustrated by the slow pace of disarmament by the world’s nuclear powers. This frustration has fueled growing calls for a world without nuclear weapons, such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which was adopted in 2017 by more than 120 countries.

“The NPT has failed in its promise to rid the world of nuclear weapons. Instead, it has simply entrenched the status quo,” says diplomat Fernando Pereira, who played a role in the TPNW.

???? The Return of Nuclear Deterrence

While disarmament is slow, nuclear deterrence remains a key element of international security policy. The world’s nuclear powers—primarily the U.S., Russia, and China—continue to maintain and modernize their nuclear arsenals. This arms race has created global tension, as strategic alliances become more dependent on nuclear weapons.

Simultaneously, countries like Iran and North Korea have made clear their intentions to acquire nuclear weapons, citing the security guarantees that come with them.

“Nuclear weapons remain a currency of power,” said Dr. Evan Boyd, an arms control expert. “And until there’s a clear path to security without them, countries will continue to pursue them.”

???? The Rise of "Threshold" States

One of the most pressing concerns is the growing number of "threshold states"—countries that have the technological capacity to develop nuclear weapons but have stopped short of fully crossing the line. These nations, like Japan and South Korea, are often seen as vulnerable in regions where nuclear powers are locked in geopolitical competition. As the balance of power shifts, these states may feel compelled to go nuclear to ensure their own survival.

???? The Path Forward: Reform or Collapse?

The nuclear order established by the NPT is crumbling under pressure. A reformist approach would involve stronger verification mechanisms, a clear commitment to disarmament by nuclear states, and measures to address the rise of new nuclear powers. Without significant reforms, the NPT risks becoming irrelevant as an arms control tool, unable to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons in a world that continues to see them as symbols of power and security.

“It’s time to ask hard questions: Should we double down on the NPT, or start working on a new treaty altogether?” says Dr. Claire Hoffman, an expert on arms control at the Geneva Center for Security Policy.

???? Conclusion: Can the NPT Be Saved?

As global tensions rise and the nuclear club expands, the future of the NPT is increasingly uncertain. Whether it remains the bedrock of nuclear diplomacy or gives way to a new order of arms control depends on the world’s ability to reaffirm its commitment to disarmament and build a more secure and transparent path forward. The next decade will be crucial in determining if nuclear non-proliferation remains a global priority or if the world is resigned to living in an age where nuclear weapons are once again the ultimate guarantor of power.